Puget Sound Future Scenarios

The future is uncertain. The Puget Sound region’s climate is changing and its population is growing. These changes bring challenges including housing availability and affordability, increased flooding, pressure to convert working lands, and at-risk salmon and orca populations. The choices we make now can guide us toward a more resilient future.

The Puget Sound Future Scenarios project, or Future Scenarios, is an exploratory scenario project, which means it supports open-ended, interdisciplinary, and future-focused thinking. It offers a structured way to explore possible futures and consider creative and strategic approaches to resilience. Future Scenarios examines the four potential futures and provides a framework for thinking about potential futures and preparing for uncertainties.

The current phase of the project is focused on engaging the Puget Sound recovery community in conversations and workshops all about Future Scenarios. If you’re interested in getting involved, please scroll to the bottom of this page to learn more!

Learn more about Future Scenarios’ origins and background.

What are the scenarios?

The Future Scenarios project explores what Puget Sound could look like in 2080 with one baseline scenario based on current growth, development, and land use trends, along with four alternative scenarios that change those trends in different ways. Each scenario is centered around a narrative, or story, about how a Puget Sound resident involved in Puget Sound recovery might experience the future. Modeling helps bring those stories to life by showing what each future could look like.

             

Some assumptions about the future stay the same across all the scenarios:

• Population growth rates are at the high end of Office of Financial Management projections: Between 2020 and 2080, Future Scenarios assumes Puget Sound's overall population will grow by approximately 110% to just under 11 million people.
• Climate change impacts are high: The models use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) level 8.5, which assumes high levels of greenhouse gas emissions that increase global warming.
• Investments in habitat conservation and restoration are consistently high, based on recent annual investment in Puget Sound recovery. Priorities for conservation and restoration are generally the same across scenarios.
• Urban growth area (UGA) boundaries remain the same as in 2020.

Other factors vary between scenarios, including:

• The way new population is distributed across the region and between urban and rural areas.
• How much jurisdictions support density, including upzoning, redevelopment, and accessory dwelling units.
• How strongly working lands are protected or allowed to convert.
• The extent to which people make environmentally conscious choices and lifestyle decisions.
• How jurisdictions coordinate planning and restoration activities.

Learn more about the five scenarios, read each scenario story, and see the scenario results.
Learn more about the scenario development and modeling process.

What have the scenarios shown us so far?

Across all scenarios, we observed some potential changes between now and 2080 that are as expected:

• Big cities throughout the region continue to grow (especially in central Puget Sound counties)
• Population growth continues in key habitat areas, such as floodplains and riparian areas, both including inside and outside urban areas
• Housing prices increase and likely disproportionately affect overburdened communities
• Agricultural and forestry economic activity declines and may also disproportionately affect overburdened communities
• More people experience high-heat days and nights, as well as impacts of sea level rise

The scenarios also revealed some things that were not as expected:

• Existing UGAs have enough capacity to accommodate about 95% of new population growth between now and 2080 if communities support significant increases in density via upzoning
• Conservation and restoration opportunities can happen both inside and outside UGAs; removing barriers could create substantial opportunities to achieve conservation and restoration goals.
• Salmon population outcomes are challenging but there are still opportunities to improve habitat conditions by concentrating population growth in urban areas and investing in conservation.

What’s next for Future Scenarios?

Across the Puget Sound recovery community, there is growing interest in exploratory scenarios and the ways they can test recovery strategies, support decision making, and inspire behavior change. There is a lot of excitement about continuing Future Scenarios work and sharing what has been learned with communities across the region.

In Spring 2026, the Project Team began the next phase of the project, which is dedicated to engaging new voices to inform how Future Scenarios products and tools can be applied to work being done by the Puget Sound recovery community. This phase will combine broad and targeted engagement strategies to bring in new perspectives and voices, share information about the project, and identify opportunities to apply Future Scenarios tools and processes.

Several engagements are planned for 2026-2027, including:

• Four Lunch & Learns
• Six “Deep Dive” targeted engagements
• Three pilot tests
• Two workshops

Want to learn more or get involved?

We would love to connect with you! To learn more about engagement opportunities, please reach out to our Assistant Science Director and Future Scenarios Lead, Laura Rivas at laura.rivas@psp.wa.gov.

You can also submit questions, comments, or other feedback using our form.

 

Last updated: 07/24/26